Demand Forecasting Lead (all genders)

About tonies: tonies is the globally leading interactive audio platform for children with more than 10 million Tonieboxes and 125 million Tonies sold. The intuitive and award-winning audio system has changed the way young children play and learn independently with its child-safe, wireless, and screen-free approach. Tonieboxes have been activated in over 100 countries, the content portfolio includes around 1,400 Tonies in several languages. Since its inception, tonies has achieved significant milestones, including listing on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in November 2021 as well as a globally present team of over 550 dedicated professionals operating from various countries. Joining our tonies team means being part of an inspiring mission to create innovative and meaningful experiences for children around the world. Together, we’re shaping the future of play, learning, and imagination. Du als Teil von tonies: You as part of tonies: The Baseline Demand Forecasting Specialist (COE) is the primary architect of tonies’ unconstrained statistical demand signal. This role transforms historical sales, market dynamics, and complex lifecycle indicators into a robust Baseline Forecast that serves as the "single version of the truth" for global decision-making. This forecast enables front-line market demand planning and commercial teams to further enrich it with specific commercial actions. Operating within a Center of Excellence (COE) capacity, you will provide an end-to-end view of the forecasting process across all markets and channels. This involves setting global standards, enabling local stakeholders, and ensuring that the baseline forecast integrates seamlessly with downstream supply planning and the S&OP/IBP cycle. You will combine high-level analytical modeling with pragmatic business partnering to reduce bias and increase planning maturity. Deine Aufgaben umfassen: Your tasks and responsibilities will include: 1. Process Leadership & Enablement End-to-End Ownership: Lead the global forecasting process from data intake and baseline generation to handover into monthly Demand Reviews. Ways of Working: Define and continuously improve the forecasting calendar, roles, and collaboration standards between central and market teams. Commercial Integration: Enable regional teams to enrich statistical baselines with market intelligence, ensuring a clear distinction between system data and human overrides. Inventory Synchronization: Partner across the supply chain to align primary drivers (hardware/hero figures) with dependent SKUs to prevent stock-outs or partial kits. 2. Methods, Analytics & Advanced Modeling Statistical Optimization: Select, tune, and advance forecasting methods (e.g., exponential smoothing, regression) to fit diverse demand patterns and move away from "naive" models. Attachment & Lifecycle Logic: Establish historical "attach ratios" for secondary products and manage New Product Introductions (NPI) via look-alike modeling and phase-out logics. Data Synthesis & Innovation: Merge disparate datasets (e.g., hardware registrations, retail sell-through) into a cohesive signal, and prototype scalable ML/AI forecasting opportunities. 3. Governance & Performance Management Model Governance & Guardrails: Establish segmentation rules, "best fit" logic reviews, and clear traceability rules for manual overrides. Accountability & FVA: Track performance metrics (WAPE, Bias), lead root-cause analysis for misses, and own the Forecast Value Add (FVA) process to ensure human interventions add measurable value. Transparency: Maintain the "single version of the truth" through disciplined documentation of methodologies and material plan changes. 4. Systems & Signal Integrity History Cleansing & Analysis: Identify and correct demand distortions (e.g., stock-outs, promotional spikes) and analyze seasonality and outliers at the SKU and channel levels. Automation & Upgrades: Partner with IT and Planning Systems Specialists to automate manual workflows, improve data flows, and define requirements for Advanced Planning System (APS) dashboards. Was dich in deiner Ausbildung erwartet: Was wir uns von dir wünschen: What we are looking for: Industry Expertise: Minimum 5+ years of experience in industries characterized by high dependency ratios, such as Consumer Electronics, Gaming, or Licensed Entertainment. Lifecycle Management: A proven track record of managing "System-to-Service" or "Platform-to-Consumable" product lifecycles. Strategic Influence: Experience presenting "Attachment Logic" to senior leadership to justify inventory investments in secondary or dependent SKUs. Forecasting Proficiency: Deep knowledge of time series, seasonality, intermittency, and model governance. COE Experience: Demonstrated ability to operate in a Center of Excellence role—setting standards and driving adoption across diverse stakeholders. Technical Toolset: Hands-on experience with APS/planning tools such as o9, Kinaxis, Blue Yonder, or SAP IBP. Data Science & Software: Strong Excel skills are mandatory; SQL capability is strongly preferred. Experience with Python/R or ML/AI in a demand forecasting context is a significant plus. Communication: Ability to translate complex statistical insights into practical business actions for non-technical stakeholders. Education: Bachelor’s degree in Supply Chain, Statistics, Economics, Industrial Engineering, or a related field. Languages: Fluent English is required; German is considered a plus. Warum tonies? Why tonies? Global Teamwork: We collaborate across departmental and country borders on our vision to bring the Toniebox into every child's room in the world. Come as you are: This applies not only to the dress code but also to everything else. Because only where you truly feel comfortable can you give your best. Mobility: Choose the option that suits you best - a Deutschlandticket (public transport ticket) for unlimited mobility, a monthly contribution for an office parking space, a leasing bicycle, or a remote work subsidy. Enhanced Security: Benefit from subsidies for company pension plans, occupational pension schemes, and occupational disability insurance. Rest & Time Off: Enjoy 30 days of paid annual leave as well as three additional days off such as Rosenmontag, Christmas Eve, and New Year's Eve. After one year of employment, you can also use up to 10 "toniecation days" (unpaid leave days). Continuous Learning: Benefit from our internal and external training opportunities as well as an individual learning budget to continuously expand your knowledge. Language Learning & Relaxation: Improve your communication skills with the language learning app Babbel and find relaxation through our access to the meditation app Calm. Discounts: Benefit from attractive discounts on our entire range of tonies products. Was unser Software Development ausmacht: What makes our software development unique: Gut zu wissen: Good to know: As part of our principles, we are committed to supporting inclusion and diversity at tonies. We actively celebrate our colleagues’ different abilities, ethnicities, faith and gender. Everyone is welcome and supported in their development at all stages in their journey with us. We look forward to hearing from you! Lisa Weyers Talent Acquisition Manager