Lead Forecaster – Self Sufficiency and Aging and People with Disabilities (Economist 4)

Initial Posting Date: 08/28/2026 Application Deadline: 09/11/2026 Agency: Department of Human Services Salary Range: $7,911 - $11,657 Position Type: Employee Position Title: Lead Forecaster – Self Sufficiency and Aging and People with Disabilities (Economist 4) Job Description: The Oregon Department of Human Services is proud to be an Equal Opportunity Employer. We are guided by our Equity North Star and our vision for a positive RiSE organizational culture that advances equity and diversity. We encourage applications from members of historically underrepresented racial/ethnic groups, women, individuals with disabilities, veterans, LGBTQIA2S+ community members, and others to help us achieve our vision of a diverse and inclusive community. The Office of Forecasting, Research and Analysis (OFRA) is a shared service supporting the Oregon Department of Human Services (ODHS) and Oregon Health Authority (OHA). OFRA provides independent, objective, and transparent statewide caseload forecasts and research to support budget development, public policy, and operational planning. The office also supports cross-agency research and oversees the Integrated Client Services (ICS) Data Warehouse, which connects data across programs and agencies to support forecasting, research, decision-making, and continuous improvement. Opportunity a waits! Are you an experienced economist or quantitative analyst who enjoys transforming complex data into meaningful insights that inform critical decisions? Do you have a passion for forecasting, public policy, and using data to understand what may be ahead? Summary of Duties T his position as the lead caseload forecaster is responsible for developing projections of statewide caseloads for major programs administered by the Department of Human Services. This position will be responsible for developing and modifying complex statistical models incorporating economic and demographic variables that can influence participation in means-tested programs. A successful candidate for this position must be able to explain forecast methodologies and policy issues to technical and non-technical audiences, including executive leadership, program leadership, budget staff; financial office and legislative staff; legislators, media and members of the public. OFRA prides itself on operating in an independent, objective, and transparent manner. Minimum Qualifications A master's degree in economics or a related field , including applied social or biological sciences and four years experience doing predictive analytics, forecasting and related social science research ; OR A Ph.D. in economics or a related field i ncluding applied social or biological sciences and one-year experience doing predictive analytics, forecasting and related social science research. Essential Attributes We are looking for candidates with demonstrated experience in: Forecasting & Quantitative Modeling: Developing, validating , and refining complex forecasts, projections, statistical models, or other quantitative methodologies to identify trends and anticipate future outcomes. Data Analysis & Validation: Analyzing complex datasets, evaluating data quality and reliability, identifying trends and anomalies, and using evidence to support accurate and defensible conclusions. Public Policy & Caseload Analysis: Analyzing how legislation, policy changes, program design, economic conditions, demographic shifts, and other external factors may influence caseloads, program participation, or service demand. Technical Communication: Translating complex data, statistical methodologies, forecasts, and projections into clear and meaningful information for non-technical audiences, including executives, policymakers, program leaders, or other decision-makers. Independent Analytical Judgment & Problem-Solving: Exercising independent professional judgment to evaluate assumptions, select appropriate analytical approaches, address complex or emerging forecasting issues, and develop innovative, evidence-based solutions. Attention all candidates! A cover letter and resume are required . Clearly describe how you meet the minimum qualifications and essential attributes in your application materials. Please include any experience you have with data analytics especially working with relational databases and/or administrative data. Your application materials will determine if you are selected to move forward in the selection process. Please include detailed work and education history. Please upload a resume or complete the work history profile. Note: Your resume and cover letter may be uploaded in the Resume/CV field on the online application. If you are selected as the final candidate and a degree is listed as a minimum qualification for the position, please be prepared to provide verification of your completed education before moving forward in the hiring process. The use of outside resources such as Artificial Intelligence software during applicant skill assessments, examinations, and/or interviews is prohibited unless otherwise stated by the hiring agency. Unauthorized use of outside resources during the hiring process will result in disqualification. The State of Oregon does not request or require your age, date of birth, attendance or graduation dates from an educational institution during the application process. Working Conditions The unit currently operates in a hybrid work environment, with a 100% remote work option available. Work requires extended periods using computers, data systems, technical information, statistical models, and complex datasets. The position requires the ability to work independently with minimal supervision , manage competing priorities, and meet established forecasting and reporting deadlines. Regular communication and collaboration are required with ODHS and OHA staff, executives, budget and policy staff, legislative and Governor’s Office staff, and other partners through virtual, telephone, written, and in-person communication. Work may involve presenting and explaining complex or sensitive forecasting, policy, and fiscal information to diverse technical and non-technical audiences. Occasional evening and weekend work may be required , particularly in response to forecasting, budget, or legislative timelines. Background Checks and Requirements If selected as a finalist, we will conduct a criminal history and background check. Adverse criminal history or background check may lead to disqualification. Additional background check information. The Oregon Department of Human Services does not offer visa sponsorship. Within three days of hire, you will be required to complete the US Department of Homeland Security’s I-9 form confirming authorization to work in the United States. ODHS will use E-Verify to confirm that you are authorized to work in the United States. { Insert appropriate additional requirement language } Benefits ODHS Employee Resource Group communities that promote shared learning. Cost of Living Adjustments. Annual salary increases (until you reach the top of the listed salary range). Amazing benefits package . Possible eligibility for the Public Service Loan Forgiveness Program . Employment Preference Veteran s’ and Oregon National Guard preference: Eligible V eterans and Oregon National Guard servicemembers (current and former) who meet the qualifications of the position will be awarded candidate preference. For more information, please visit Veterans Resources. Malheur County preference: If your primary residence is in Malheur County, you may choose to receive 5 percent preference points. The application process includes a required question where you can indicate if you’d like to receive preference or not. General Information This is a ​ permanent ​ , ​ full-time ​ position and is ​ a Management Service, Non-Supervisory position and is not represented by a union. ​ This recruitment may be used to fill future vacancies in the same classification. Contact Information We invite you to contact the r ecruiter for accommodation requests under the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), application questions or job-specific questions. The r ecruiter for this position is ​ Crystal Marion ​ . If you contact the r ecruiter, please include the job requisition number. Email: ​ [email protected] ​ Phone (call or text): 503-752-0398