Remote | Local Political Expert — Elections Forecasting & Political Risk — $150–$250/hour

We are sharing a specialised consulting opportunity for experienced U.S. political analysts with deep state-level expertise in elections, polling, forecasting, and political-risk analysis to contribute to advanced AI evaluation and research projects.

Selected professionals will author point-in-time political reports based on fixed evidence cutoffs, document contemporaneous analytical judgments, assess polling and probability-based forecasts, and review AI-generated political analysis against professional research standards. The work is designed for practitioners with direct experience analysing live U.S. races and specific state political environments.

Key Responsibilities

Point-in-Time Political Analysis

• Author political reports using only information available at a stated evidence cutoff
• Analyse elections, polling developments, and political-risk events without hindsight
• Document the reasoning an informed analyst could have applied at that time
• Separate contemporaneous information from later developments
• Maintain disciplined sourcing and chronology throughout each assignment

Polling & Forecasting Analysis

• Assess polling data relevant to current or recent U.S. statewide races
• Document directional judgments regarding polling trends and race dynamics
• Analyse probability-based forecasts and market-implied political odds where required
• Explain the assumptions underlying analytical conclusions
• Apply strong polling literacy to uncertain and evolving electoral environments

State-Level Political Research

• Apply detailed knowledge of specific states, electorates, candidates, and local political environments
• Analyse Senate, gubernatorial, and other statewide contests
• Incorporate relevant state-level political and electoral context
• Evaluate developments based on direct familiarity with the races being covered
• Distinguish locally meaningful signals from broader national political trends

Political Risk & Causal Analysis

• Explain mechanisms through which political events may affect electoral or market-related outcomes
• Assess how new information could alter contemporaneous political expectations
• Analyse event significance using clearly documented causal reasoning
• Identify relevant uncertainties and competing interpretations
• Produce structured analysis suitable for research and model-evaluation workflows

AI Evaluation & Analytical Quality

• Review model-generated political analyses against expert-authored reference work
• Assess whether outputs accurately use the information available at the stated cutoff
• Identify hindsight, data leakage, unsupported assumptions, or analytical inconsistencies
• Provide structured feedback on polling interpretation and probabilistic reasoning
• Help establish consistent standards for evaluating political-analysis quality

Ideal Profile

• Deep expertise in U.S. state-level electoral politics
• Direct experience analysing current, upcoming, or recent Senate, gubernatorial, or statewide races
• Strong knowledge of the electorate, candidates, and political environment in at least one relevant state
• Background in university political science or survey research, state or regional polling, campaign or party analytics, political-risk analysis, or comparable election-focused work
• Demonstrated experience making live judgments about polling, probabilities, or political odds
• Strong polling literacy and experience interpreting changing race conditions
• Strong causal-analysis and political-research skills
• Typically 8+ years of directly relevant experience, or substantial equivalent professional experience
• National forecasting or political-risk experience is relevant when paired with deep state-specific expertise
• Strong written communication and ability to document analytical reasoning clearly
• Experience should include live U.S. electoral analysis rather than primarily retrospective commentary
• Profiles centred primarily on international politics or geopolitics without substantial U.S. race experience are outside the intended scope
• Pure communications or journalism experience without demonstrated forecasting or polling work is not sufficient for this project
• Academic experience should include analysis of live electoral contests rather than exclusively theoretical research

Engagement Details

• Independent contractor engagement
• Remote — Canada and United States only
• Compensation: $150–$250/hour
• Work will involve election research, polling analysis, point-in-time forecasting, political-risk analysis, and AI-output evaluation
• Assignments require reasoning strictly from the stated evidence cutoff without hindsight
• Confidential information, material non-public information, and information unavailable at the specified cutoff must not be used
• Strong state-specific expertise in U.S. electoral politics is central to this engagement
• Projects may be extended, shortened, or concluded early depending on project needs and performance
• Payments are made weekly through Stripe or Wise based on services rendered
• H1-B and STEM OPT candidates cannot currently be supported
• Work must be completed without using confidential or proprietary information belonging to any employer, client, institution, campaign, political organisation, or other third party

About the Platform

This opportunity is available through 24-MAG LLC. We connect experienced professionals with remote consulting opportunities across technical, evaluation, and project-based workstreams.

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