DREEM Baseline Assessment Study

Contract Period: To be confirmed; anticipated 4–6 months, with phased implementation

Application Deadline: Applications will be reviewed on a rolling basis

1. Introduction

WUSC (World University Service of Canada) is a leading Canadian international development organization committed to providing education, economic, and empowerment opportunities that improve the lives of disadvantaged youth around the world, with particular focus on young women and displaced people. In line with this mission, WUSC invites qualified consultancy firms or research institutions with demonstrated expertise in monitoring, evaluation, research, and learning in forced displacement, education, and economic inclusion to submit applications to conduct the baseline study for the second phase of DREEM.

DREEM is a five-year, pan-African initiative (2026 - 2030) implemented by WUSC in partnership with Mastercard Foundation and its partners, including higher education institutions, Young Africa Works partners, and Refugee-Led Organizations (RLOs). The initiative works to improve equitable access to higher education and to dignified and fulfilling work for refugee and displaced persons (RDP) youth across Africa, with a focus on young women, persons with disabilities, and internally displaced persons (IDPs).

This Terms of Reference (ToR) defines a focused, phased baseline assessment aligned with the September 2026 DREEM MERL Plan, Performance Measurement Framework (PMF), and Learning Agenda. It prioritizes credible starting evidence, selective gap-filling, and a usable rolling baseline protocol over a predetermined volume of multi-country data collection. The assignment will support performance measurement and future evaluation without duplicating ongoing work by WUSC and its partners.

Meaningful collaboration with RLOs is a core requirement of this assignment. The selected firm will be expected to work directly with RLOs in the design and implementation of data collection activities, including engaging RLO staff and members as trained and fairly compensated researchers, enumerators, and facilitators, as appropriate. A minimum of 20% of the total assignment budget and level of effort must be dedicated to RLO participation and related capacity strengthening. Applicants must clearly demonstrate how this requirement will be met in their technical and financial proposals, including the roles RLOs will undertake, the proposed partnership arrangements, and the corresponding allocation of resources. This reflects WUSC's and the Mastercard Foundation's commitment to locally led, African-centred approaches to evidence generation.

1. DREEM Program Overview

DREEM Phase 1: Achievements and Lessons

The first phase of DREEM (2020 to 2025) strengthened the inclusion of refugee and displaced youth in education and employment across the Mastercard Foundation’s partner network. By its midline evaluation in 2022, DREEM had already contributed to 2,531 refugee and displaced scholars (14.5%) enrolling in higher education through the Mastercard Foundation Scholars Program, and to 1,391 youth in work (YiW) through 194 funded RDP and host-community-owned businesses. DREEM also piloted locally led outreach and technical assistance models with RLOs, the University Now consortium, and capacity-strengthening support to RLOs in Malawi, South Sudan, and South Africa.

Internal and external evaluations of DREEM Phase 1, including assessments by HERE and Expectation State, identified several priorities that inform the design of DREEM Phase 2: strengthening the transition from higher education to employment; deepening and formalizing partnerships with RLOs; institutionalizing sustainable outreach mechanisms; building dedicated internal expertise on internally displaced persons; and developing more systematic approaches to technical assistance delivery and its measurement. These lessons directly inform both the design of phase 2 of DREEM and the evidence priorities of this baseline study.

Overview of DREEM Phase 2

DREEM expands on the achievements of the first phase by deepening engagement, strengthening local ecosystems, and equipping the Mastercard Foundation and its partners with the knowledge, tools, and partnerships needed to drive lasting change for RDP youth, particularly young women, across Africa. The initiative extends its reach to new geographies, places a greater emphasis on strengthening RLOs as providers of technical assistance, and deepens its focus on internally displaced persons, asylum seekers, and returnees as well as youth from host communities.

DREEM works primarily through technical assistance, institutional capacity strengthening, research, knowledge exchange, and partnerships, with WUSC acting both as a provider of technical assistance and as a network orchestrator connecting institutions, RLOs, and other actors across the Foundation's partner network.

Over five years, DREEM will work to contribute indirectly, through technical assistance to the Foundation and its partners, to enabling 1,000,000 RDP youth, especially young women, to secure dignified and fulfilling work, and 35,000 RDP youth to access education. The initiative will directly enable over 5,000 RDP and host-community youth (70% young women, 10% persons with disabilities) to access dignified and fulfilling work and will engage and strengthen the capacity of 62+ RLOs, of which 5% will focus on green or climate-smart programming.

The DREEM Theory of Change is organized around two interconnected intermediate outcomes:

• Outcome 1100: Improved provision of inclusive education and economic opportunities programming for RDP and host-community youth especially young women by Mastercard Foundation and its partners, comprising two immediate outcomes: (1110) increased knowledge among Foundation staff and partners of the policies, practices, and systemic barriers affecting RDP youth; and (1120) enhanced capacity of Foundation staff and partners to develop, test, and scale inclusive programming.
• Outcome 1200: Strengthened ecosystems that support the inclusion of RDP youth especially young women across Africa, comprising two immediate outcomes: (1210) increased capacity of the Foundation and partners to develop, improve, and implement inclusive policies and practices; and (1220) enhanced ability of RLOs to design, implement, and sustain solutions that improve access to education and dignified and fulfilling work for RDP youth.

DREEM has deep engagement in Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Nigeria, Ghana, and the eight countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU): Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. Its broader geographic reach includes Chad, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Africa, Egypt, South Sudan, and Malawi. Program governance is guided by a Youth Advisory Board (YAB) composed of 15 young refugee and displaced leaders (at least 60% women), and by a Youth Technical Advisory Committee (YTAC) that deploys RDP youth experts to support Foundation teams and partners directly.

The revised DREEM MERL Plan (September 2026) integrates routine performance monitoring, targeted research, evaluation, and structured learning to understand not only what changes, but how and why change occurs, and DREEM's contribution to those changes. Its Learning Agenda examines institutional practices, organizational capacity, partnerships, and the contextual factors influencing DREEM's Theory of Change. The baseline assessment will establish credible starting conditions for measuring and interpreting change over time, while providing a practical approach for assessing new partners and RLOs as they enter the project. It is not expected to implement the broader Learning Agenda or establish parallel monitoring arrangements.

1. Baseline Assessment Context and Approach

3.1 Baseline Assessment Context and Purpose

The purpose of this assignment is to establish a credible, proportionate and usable starting evidence base for DREEM Phase 2. The consultant will first assess existing PMF data sources and ongoing diagnostics, determine where baseline values are meaningful and obtainable, and identify the priority gaps requiring supplementary inquiry. A single survey is not expected to provide baseline values for every indicator.

The baseline will establish institutional, organizational and contextual starting conditions relevant to DREEM’s main pathways of change, and document measures and evidence sources that can be revisited at midline (2028), endline (2030), and at the point when new partners enter the project. The assignment will distinguish evidence of conditions before DREEM support from routine monitoring of subsequent project outputs and outcomes.

DREEM’s MERL system is guided by seven principles: utilization-focused, enabling and co-created, systems-oriented, adaptive, inquiry-driven, contribution (rather than attribution) focused, and equity and participation-centered approaches. The baseline study is expected to embody each of these principles in its design and delivery. In practice, this means the baseline exercise must go beyond generating a static set of numbers: it should generate a credible, well-documented evidence base that can support the assessment of DREEM’s contribution to change at midline and endline; it should be co-designed with RLOs, the Youth Advisory Board, and RDP youth wherever feasible, rather than extracted from them; and it should establish starting conditions not only for individual RDP youth, where relevant, but also for Mastercard Foundation and partner organizations, RLOs, and the wider ecosystem, providing a basis for examining change at these different levels over time.

3.2 Evidence-Led and Proportionate Approach

The assignment will use a mixed-methods approach determined by specific evidence needs, not by fixed survey or interview quotas. The consultant must review the PMF, Indicator Reference Sheets, existing assessments, partner records and ongoing MERL work before proposing new primary data collection. In particular, the design should:

• Map each relevant PMF indicator to its unit of analysis, definition, baseline requirement, existing or proposed data source, disaggregation, quality limitations, collection responsibility, and update frequency; distinguish meaningful baseline values from indicators appropriately starting at zero or measured at entry into support.
• Consolidate existing Foundation and partner evidence on knowledge, skills, inclusion policies and organizational practices; propose focused entry-point assessments only where needed for monitoring subsequent technical assistance and institutional change.
• Review existing RLO organizational capacity assessments and partner monitoring tools, including those associated with the Opportunity Fund; undertake targeted supplementary assessments only where important evidence gaps remain, using agreed domains and existing Foundation assessment frameworks where appropriate.
• Use selective KIIs, consultations, observation, short surveys or other suitable methods to examine priority institutional and contextual starting conditions and Theory of Change assumptions. Any RDP youth survey must have a clear indicator or learning purpose, justified sampling frame and feasible budget; a representative multi-country youth survey is not a default requirement.
• Draw on DREEM Phase 1 evaluations, existing HEI baseline and institutional diagnostic work, TAM records, University Now monitoring, RLO records, contextual/landscape research and other relevant secondary evidence. Document source reliability, coverage, gaps, and comparability.

Following the initial evidence review, the Firm will present a prioritized assessment of remaining evidence gaps and a proposed plan for supplementary data collection, including the rationale, methods, geographic coverage, respondent groups, resource requirements, and expected contribution to the baseline. The scope of primary data collection will be agreed with WUSC before fieldwork begins, taking account of the available budget and the relative importance of the evidence gaps identified.

For measures that will be compared over time, the consultant must document consistent definitions, respondent/organization selection rules, data sources, instruments, timing and limitations. The design must distinguish changes within continuing partner cohorts from differences caused by new organizations or geographies entering DREEM.

3.3 Rolling Baseline Approach

DREEM engagement is staggered across Foundation teams, higher education institutions, partners, RLOs and geographies. Accordingly, baseline measurement should occur at a meaningful point before or near the start of relevant support, rather than assuming that all organizations and countries require the same assessment at one fixed date.

The baseline will have two linked components:

• An initial consolidated baseline, using available evidence and targeted new inquiry for agreed priority outcomes, partner cohorts and institutional starting conditions.
• A practical rolling baseline protocol, including concise entry-point tools, indicator definitions, minimum data requirements, timing, responsibilities and data-quality checks for new partners, RLOs and other cohorts, as well as existing partners entering new areas of DREEM support. The protocol must be feasible for WUSC and partner teams to administer without recurring large-scale external research.

The technical proposal should explain how the proposed rolling baseline will connect to existing workstream monitoring and organizational assessments, avoid duplicate data collection, and support meaningful midline/endline comparison.

3.4 Alignment with Comprehensive Approach to Reviews and Evaluations (CARE)

DREEM requires the baseline assessment to be framed, designed, and reported in accordance with the Mastercard Foundation's Comprehensive Approach to Reviews and Evaluations (CARE), rather than relying primarily on external evaluation frameworks such as the OECD-DAC criteria. CARE provides a values-driven approach to reviews and evaluations that emphasizes shared impact, youth voice, locally grounded evidence, and the practical use of findings. The framework is provided as Annex F, and applicants are expected to demonstrate how they will apply its principles and standards to this assignment.

The baseline study should embody CARE’s five core values: humility, listening, kindness and respect, co-creation, and impact throughout its design and conduct, and should be structured around CARE’s four Guiding Principles for Reviews and Evaluations: