Research Consultant: Syria country study, Return Implications for Host Economies

Please note the application deadline is November 20th. The consultancy is based in Syria/Remote

Background

Prosper Global is a leading global organization powered by the belief that a better world is possible. In disaster, in hardship, in more than 40 countries around the world, we partner to put bold solutions into action — helping people triumph over adversity and build stronger communities from within. Now, and for the future. To do this, we know our teams do their best work when they are diverse and every team member feels that they belong. We welcome diverse backgrounds, perspectives, and skills so that we can be stronger and have long-term impact.

Prosper Global has developed a Crisis Analysis function to support our programming in the most complex contexts, including Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Ukraine, and others. The Crisis Analysis supports Prosper Global’s in-country programming as well as the wider humanitarian response in the region through the provision of quality, timely and relevant analytical products. This analysis is grounded in Prosper Global’s position as an operational NGO, keeping our products constructive and relevant for humanitarian, early recovery, and development responders and donors within a given crisis.

This consultancy is part of “Strengthening Regional Policy Dialogue and Partnerships on Solutions”, a United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Prosper Global initiative funded by the Regional Development and Protection Program (RDPP). RDPP is a multi-donor platform managed by the Kingdom of Denmark that has supported refugees and displaced communities in the countries neighboring Syria since 2014; the initiative supports evidence-based advocacy and partnerships on adaptive solutions for refugee and displaced communities.

Purpose / Project Description

Under this initiative, Prosper Global and UNDP are conducting “Return Implications for Host Economies”, a set of three country studies on Lebanon, Jordan and Syria. The studies examine how Syrian refugee returns since December 2024 affect labor markets, consumer demand, local services and public finances, and investment in Lebanon and Jordan, and how returns shape the same dynamics in the main areas of return in Syria. Each study will be led by a dedicated consultant. Findings from the three studies will be compared to identify common challenges, opportunities and areas of convergence, and to develop regional recommendations to support policy dialogue with host governments, the private sector and local actors, and to inform the planning of UN agencies, donors and humanitarian and development actors.

This consultancy covers the Syria study, which examines how returns from Lebanon and Jordan affect the economies of the main areas of return, and whether those areas can absorb returnees. Labor and consumer markets, access to public services and investment will shape whether returnees remain in areas of return; where they cannot rebuild their livelihoods, some may move within Syria and others may leave the country again. Evidence on returnees’ labor market outcomes in Syria is largely absent. The study will cover three to four areas that have received large numbers of returnees from Lebanon and Jordan, with primary data collected by Syrian research partners under their security protocols, and will produce a country report following the same structure as the Lebanon and Jordan reports. It examines economic capacity, such as jobs, prices and services, and is not a judgment on whether return is safe, voluntary and dignified.

Consultant Objectives

• Assess whether the skills and work experience of returnees from Lebanon and Jordan match local labor demand in the main areas of return, in which sectors and on what terms, and how returnees fare compared with residents and returning internally displaced people.

• Assess how returns have affected local prices, rents, housing availability and the supply of goods, and where demand is outrunning supply.

• Assess whether education, health, civil documentation and housing, land and property (HLP) services in areas of return can meet the added demand, and identify the main bottlenecks.

• Map the public, private, diaspora and donor investment reaching areas of return and what constrains it (for example access to banking, legal certainty, sanctions-related restrictions, property disputes or security).

• Document the economic ties that remain between returnees and Lebanon or Jordan, such as remittances, seasonal or circular work and cross-border trade; how residents view returns and their effect on local economic conditions; and what happens to returnees who cannot secure a livelihood.

• Develop country-level recommendations on measures (for example service planning, investment facilitation, support for civil documentation and HLP, and arrangements for cross-border work and trade) that could help areas of return absorb returnees in ways that benefit both returnees and residents, and contribute to the regional recommendations.

Consultant Activities

The Consultant will:

• Review published and ongoing studies on returns and the economies of areas of return in Syria, including work by UN agencies, the World Bank, ILO, research centers and NGOs, to confirm evidence gaps, avoid duplication and refine the research questions.

• Check data availability on labor, prices and rents, service use, aid flows and returns, including the geographic level, period and access conditions of each source, and recommend which additional components are feasible (for example remote-sensing or mobility data, analysis of funding flows, or forward-looking scenarios).

• Select, with Syrian research partners, three to four areas of return (likely candidates include Dar’a, Rural Damascus, Homs, Aleppo and Idleb) based on UNHCR and IOM return data and on access and security conditions, and finalize the research design, sampling, sector selection, tools, workplan and risk-mitigation measures for approval by Prosper Global and UNDP before fieldwork begins.

• Analyze secondary data, including IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix data, UNHCR return monitoring, REACH assessments, WFP market monitoring and World Bank economic monitoring.

• Brief Syrian research partners on the tools, sampling and ethics protocols, oversee and quality-assure their data collection, and adjust coverage to access conditions, documenting any gaps.

• Conduct or oversee at least 20 key informant interviews with local councils, chambers of commerce, line directorates, service providers, banks, traders, donors and NGOs, covering HLP at the level of services and constraints through interviews with institutions. The final number and composition will be set out in the inception report.

• Conduct or oversee at least two sector deep-dives (agriculture and construction are expected, to be confirmed at inception), covering employers, workers and each sector’s supply chain.

• Oversee focus group discussions with returnees from Lebanon and from Jordan (held separately), long-term residents and returning internally displaced people, and light market checks of prices, rents and the availability of key goods in each area.

• Triangulate each finding across more than one source, report findings as associations unless the design and data support causal claims, use UNHCR return figures as broad indicators rather than precise counts, and state where other factors (including post-war reconstruction and falling aid budgets) affect the trends observed.

• Apply the study’s ethics and conflict-sensitivity principles throughout: neutrality on return (the study neither assesses whether conditions for safe, voluntary and dignified return are met nor advocates for or against returns); language that does not imply a policy preference; informed consent; no personal identifiers in datasets; extra safeguards for refugees and returnees whose legal status is insecure; exclusion from interview guides of topics that could expose participants (such as military service, individual property disputes or political affiliation); and secure data storage with access limited to the research team; data collection will follow the research partners’ security protocols.

• Coordinate with the consultants leading the Lebanon and Jordan studies and with Prosper Global to align definitions, tools and report structure, and contribute to the comparison of findings and the regional recommendations.

• Present findings at the validation workshop and incorporate feedback from review rounds with Prosper Global and UNDP.

Consultant Deliverables

The Consultant will:

• Inception report: review of published and ongoing studies, data availability check, recommendation on which additional components are feasible, final research design, sampling, sector and location selection, data collection tools (English and Arabic), ethics and data protection plan, risk-mitigation measures and fallback options, and detailed workplan. Draft by the end of week 2; final version approved by Prosper Global and UNDP in week 3.

• Presentation of emerging findings to Prosper Global and UNDP at the end of fieldwork (week 11).

• Draft Syria country report following the same structure as the Lebanon and Jordan reports, with country-level recommendations and inputs to the regional recommendations, by the end of week 15.

• Final Syria country report, revised following review rounds and the validation workshop, by the end of week 20.

• Inputs to the short briefs for priority audiences, as set out in the dissemination plan agreed with UNDP and RDPP during inception.

• Final data collection tools, anonymized datasets and anonymized interview and focus group notes.

Timeframe / Schedule

The consultancy is expected to run for approximately 20 weeks. The indicative calendar below assumes a start on 16 November 2026 and will be adjusted to the contract date. The contractual end date should be 30 June 2027, in line with the RDPP grant end date.

• Inception (weeks 1–3, 16 Nov – 4 Dec 2026): draft inception report by the end of week 2; approval by Prosper Global and UNDP in week 3.

• Fieldwork and analysis (weeks 4–11, 7 Dec 2026 – 29 Jan 2027): interviews with officials and businesses scheduled around the end-of-year holidays (about 24 December to 1 January); all primary data collection closes before Ramadan.

• Drafting (weeks 12–15, 1–26 Feb 2027): mostly desk-based, with limited follow-up interviews, as Ramadan is expected to begin around 8 February 2027.

• Finalization and review (weeks 16–20, 1 Mar – 2 Apr 2027): review rounds with Prosper Global and UNDP, and validation workshops after Eid al-Fitr (expected around 9–11 March 2027).

The Consultant will report to

Senior Regional Manager, Prosper Global Crisis Analysis

The Consultant will work closely with

Prosper Global Crisis Analysis County Lead and regional colleagues, UNDP counterparts, and the consultants leading the Lebanon and Jordan studies.

Required Experience & Skills

The Consultant should have:

• At least 7 years of experience in development economics, political economy or a closely related field, including leading mixed-methods research in Syria (required).

• Demonstrated knowledge of Syria’s economy since December 2024 and of conditions in the main areas of return, including labor markets, services, investment constraints, and HLP and civil documentation issues (required).

• Proven experience designing and managing research inside Syria through local research partners, including remote management, quality assurance and adherence to security protocols.

• Familiarity with return and displacement data sources such as IOM DTM, UNHCR return monitoring, REACH assessments and WFP market monitoring.

• Sound knowledge of research ethics, data protection and conflict-sensitive practice when working with returnees, internally displaced people and other at-risk groups.

• Excellent analytical and report-writing skills in English, with a record of policy-relevant publications, and fluency in Arabic (required).

• Knowledge of cross-border economic ties between Syria, Lebanon and Jordan (desirable).

Eligibility & Application Requirements

Eligible candidates must be locally registered in Jordan, Syria or Lebanon, as a firm. Applications should include:

• A technical proposal (3 pages maximum), setting out:

• the candidate’s understanding of the research, its objectives and research questions;

• the proposed methodology and research design, including sampling, data sources, sector and location selection, and the study’s main limitations and how they will be addressed;

• the candidate’s track record of relevant research products, with links to or samples of up to three recent publications.

• A financial proposal and, where applicable, an itemized budget for field costs.

• Proof of local registration in Jordan, Syria or Lebanon.

Team Engagement and Effectiveness

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We recognize that building a strong and effective team is an ongoing process, and we remain committed to learning, improving, and growing together.

Equal Employment Opportunity

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