UNFPA Egypt CO - National Consultancy - Demographic resilience reviews and foresight-based scenario planning in Egypt

Hiring Office:
UNFPA, Egypt

Purpose of consultancy:
Background
Demographic change occurs through shifts in population size, composition (by age and sex), and territorial distribution and manifests, for example, in population ageing, youth bulge, changing household structure, distinct migration patterns, rural depopulation and rapid urbanization. These dynamics are not merely outcomes of development; they are powerful drivers. They influence economic growth and transitions, labor markets, fiscal systems and the demand for and sustainability of social services like pensions, education, healthcare and employment. They can affect inequalities and social cohesion. And they interact with climate change in affecting our planet. The relationships are bidirectional. Socio-economic conditions, peace and stability, housing, access to health and education and employment, just to name a few, significantly determine morbidity and mortality, the realization or non-realization of fertility aspirations and migration flows.

Amongst the questions linked to demographic shifts to which governments need to provide answers are the ones that relate to the future demand for public goods and services - like education, health, social protection, employment, physical infrastructure etc. - and the evolution of fiscal space. Population size, demographic composition and territorial distribution in fact shape the global and local demand for goods and services, and fiscal revenues and public spending. Through the fourth outcome of its Strategic Plan, 2026-2029, UNFPA seeks to support member states towards evidence-based and rights-based adaptation to their demographic trajectories.

Part of UNFPA’s approach is support to member states in undertaking demographic resilience reviews. These reviews entail a comprehensive forecast of the demand for various public goods and services - education, health, social protection, labor market and other public goods and services - based on projected changes in the total population and the population age structure within a longer time horizon (e.g. up to 50 years). The forecasts include baseline estimates (applying current and/or historical ratios for various public goods and services (e.g. teacher/pupil ratio) and alternative estimates assuming defined levels of improvement (based, for example, on national development visions, SDG targets and other nationally determined targets). The demand forecasts are applied further to estimate the fiscal and revenue implications of changing population age structure, taking into consideration gender, regional and other disparities.

The Egypt Country Office is seeking the services of a national consultant to contribute to a multi-country activity as part of an interregional effort by UNFPA regional offices for Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA) and Arab States (AS) to support evidence-based policies for adaptation to demographic change in selected countries (EECA - Uzbekistan, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan; AS - Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia.). The goal of the initiative is to develop and implement an integrated framework to support countries in long-term planning for sustainable provision of public goods and services aligned with their demographic trajectories. The initiative will document the full methodology and implementation experiences to support its adaptation to different country contexts.

The consultant will contribute to two complementary processes: (1) demographic resilience reviews; and (2) foresight-based scenario planning. On demographic resilience review, the national consultant will work closely and in a complementary manner with an international consultant leading the work in selected countries in the Arab States region. The results of the demographic resilience reviews will feed into a complementary scenario-based foresight analysis to broaden the range of probable and plausible scenarios of future demand for and supply of public services and goods taking into consideration other relevant factors and strengthen countries’ long-term planning. The national consultant will also support this part of the activity.

Scope of work:(Description of services, activities, or outputs)
The demographic resilience reviews will be based primarily on secondary data. The national consultant will support the analysis in close coordination with the international consultant. The foresight-based scenario planning part of the work will be in support of a second international consultant. The analysis will address the following questions for each of the selected countries:
1. How will future demand for public goods and services, like education, health, social protection, pensions etc., evolve with projected changes in the size, age structure and territorial distribution (e.g. rural vs. urban) of the population? In other words, how many more/less doctors, nurses, hospital beds, teachers, schools, childcare places, etc. will be needed in 20-50 years to respond to the needs of the population?
2. What will happen to public budgets and fiscal balances as the population size and structure change? In other words, how will the projected demographic shifts affect the government revenues (through changes in the working-age population and the dependency ratios, and the fiscal base) and expenditures (strongly driven by age-specific population groups)?
3. How might other major factors or shifts in the horizon, for example, in the technological, social, political, environmental and other spheres, affect the demand for and the supply of public goods and services? In particular, how may technological progress (e.g. digitalization and AI) and its uptake (e.g. telemedicine, virtual schooling, etc.) impact the provision of public goods and services? How can these shifts be integrated with demographic change for a more comprehensive (foresight-based) long-term planning of public goods and services?
4. How might forecasts be influenced by and in turn influence gender, regional and other disparities?

The national consultant will undertake the following tasks:
1. Support inception and planning by undertaking the following tasks:
○ Review the project concept note and other demographic resilience reviews developed by UNFPA and contribute to refining the methodological approach for the assignment to reflect national circumstances.
○ Prepare a background summary on the country's demographic, socio-economic and institutional context. This includes collecting and compiling pertinent sectoral information, such as sectoral set-up, long-term planning approaches and procedures, profiles, legislation, policies and strategies relevant to demographic resilience (e.g. in health, education, etc), including subnational population demographic projections, as guided by the lead international consultant. The background assessment should also identify existing national demographic foresight exercises, long-term development strategies and institutional mechanisms through which demographic evidence informs public policy and planning. To the extent possible, the background paper should address the following issues:
i. Labor supply and economic absorption: current gender-specific barriers to economic participation, implementation gaps in labor regulations, youth unemployment figures, childcare support systems, and labor market entry barriers;
ii. Social safety net optimization: the fiscal structure of existing social subsidy programs, coverage of social safety nets, and the long-term solvency parameters of national pension and cash transfer frameworks;
iii. Institutional service efficiency: service delivery and cost-containment models in healthcare and higher education networks, particularly regarding digital service delivery and decentralized healthcare systems; and
iv. Spatial budget allocation: the current legislative and financial criteria governing capital budget allocations to subnational regions or governorates.
○ Prepare a comprehensive inventory of available demographic and sectoral data sources and assist in discussing access to and compiling national datasets that are not publicly available. The consultant should also assess the quality, interoperability, geographical disaggregation and sustainability of available demographic and sectoral data systems to support long-term demographic resilience analysis.
○ Contribute to preparation of the inception report and workplan.
2. Support stakeholder engagement. This entails coordinating interviews, consultations and organizing technical meetings and validation workshops as needed in close collaboration with the UNFPA Country Office. Particular attention should be given to ensuring representation from national planning institutions, statistical authorities, ministries responsible for public finance and sectoral planning, academia and relevant research institutions to strengthen national ownership of the review.
3. Support the overall analysis and report development. This involves:
○ Contributing to the analyses and the development of the draft reports - demographic resilience review and foresight-based scenario planning report - especially on the contents related to the country context.
○ Providing quality assurance for the analysis and reports to ensure national relevance and that the analysis, assumptions, scenarios and policy recommendations are technically robust, nationally relevant and aligned with existing national development priorities and institutional realities.
○ Participating in discussion and validation of findings at national and multi-country levels.
4. Document country-specific innovations, good practices and lessons learned that could inform the refinement of the overall methodological framework and facilitate its replication in other UNFPA program countries.

Deliverables
1. A background summary report on the country's demographic, socio-economic and institutional context, including legislation, policies and strategies relevant to demographic resilience and relevant sectors (e.g. in health, education, etc), and national and subnational population projections and demographic trends for the country. This background summary report should include an assessment of national demographic governance arrangements, institutional capacities for anticipatory planning and existing foresight initiatives relevant to demographic resilience.
2. A comprehensive inventory of available demographic and sectoral data sources, including data to be compiled from national datasets that are not publicly available.
3. Datasets compiled for the analysis
4. Documented contributions to all study reports, i.e. inception report, demographic resilience review report, foresight-based scenario planning report, and methodological report.

Duration and working schedule:
The duration of the assignment is 30 working days, spread from Dec 2026 to March, 2027.

Budget and payment schedule
The consultancy is expected to deliver at specialist level. The daily rate will be determined based on consultant qualifications and experience. Payment will be tied to the successful completion of deliverables as follows:
-30% upon submission of Deliverables 1 and 2.
-40% upon submission of Deliverable 3.
-30% upon submission of foresight-based scenario planning report, and methodological report (Deliverable 4).

Place where services are to be delivered:
Home based work.

Delivery dates and how work will be delivered (e.g. electronic, hard copy etc.):
The consultant will provide all deliverables within the period of the assignment from December 2026 to March 2027.

Deliverable Timeline
Background summary report and data source inventory.End Dec-26
Datasets compiled for the demographic resilience review.Jan-26
Foresight-based scenario planning report.Mar-27

Monitoring and progress reporting
The consultant’s work will be monitored by the Country Office Population and Development Analyst, in collaboration with the Regional Population and Development Advisor.

Supervisory arrangements:
The consultant will perform under the overall guidance of the Country Office Population and Development Analyst and the Information Decision Support Center (IDSC). Additional coordination will be provided by the international consultant and Regional Population and Development Advisor. Performance will be monitored through weekly or fortnightly progress review meetings and submission of progress reports.

Required expertise, qualifications and competencies, including language requirements:
1. Advanced university degree in demography, economics, statistics, social sciences or related fields.
2. Minimum 7 years of relevant professional experience in demographic, economic or development policy analysis.
3. Proven experience working with national public finance data, public expenditure assessments, or sectoral budgeting models.
4. Demonstrated active local network or prior history of collaborating with the specific government entities that hold the required data.
5. Excellent analytical and writing skills.
6. Demonstrated expertise in drafting technical reports and policy briefs.
7. Strong communication and analytical skills.
8. Familiarity with the mandate of UNFPA is an asset.
9. Experience with the UN or INGO in the area of economic policies will be an asset.
10. Experience working in the Arab context is an asset.
11. Full professional proficiency in both written and oral English and Arabic.

Inputs / services to be provided by UNFPA or implementing partner (e.g support services, office space, equipment), if applicable:
IDSC and UNFPA will provide the national consultant with all necessary materials, data, information, and reports that are publicly available.

Interested Consultant should submit the following documents for applying to this consultancy:

1- Resume

2-Technical Proposal

3- Financial proposal